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JOHNSON REDBOOK RETAIL SALES INDEX

 
Week ended 
August 2010 to-date vs: 
 
08/28/10 vs year ago
August 2009 
July 2010
Johnson Redbook Index 
3.0%
2.8%
1.0%

(August 31, 2010) The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index was up 3.0% in the fourth and final week of August following a 2.6% gain the prior week. Month-to-date, August was up 2.8% compared to August of last year (in-line with the target). Month-over-month showed a 1.0% gain compared to July (also in-line with the target).

Back-to-school sales are not yet over, especially in the apparel and accessories merchandise classifications as people are positioning their purchases closer to the time of actual need. Some retailers believe hot weather may be delaying back-to-school activity. Early sales figures may not be wholly indicative for the season. Looking forward, our preliminary target for September is 2.8% year-over-year, or a month-to-month target of 1.0%. This target will be finalized in next week's report. September is a five-week month on the retail calendar ending on Saturday, October 2. Stores will report August sales on Thursday, September 2 and we will issue our usual Johnson Redbook Same-store Sales index that morning.

Johnson Redbook Index: Selected Data

 
Redbook 
Index
YoY% 
Retailer 
Target 
YoY% 
Sales 
Base 
$bln 
MoM 
Change* 
Target 
Retail Month 
#wks 
Mth end 
Aug 08
1.74
1.6
17.46
-1.62
-1.8
4
08/30/08
Sep 08
1.25
1.7
17.32
-1.27
-0.8
5
10/04/08
Oct 08
0.57
0.7
17.27
-0.94
-0.8
4
11/01/08
Nov 08
-0.91
-0.5
17.33
-1.18
-0.7
4
11/29/08
Dec 08
-0.95
0.6
17.19
-0.80
0.7
5
01/03/09
Jan 09
-2.30
-1.8
16.93
-2.28
-2.3
4
01/31/09
Feb 09
-1.62
-1.9
16.91
-0.06
-0.4
4
02/28/09
Mar 09
-0.80
-0.8
16.79
0.12
0.1
5
04/04/09
Apr 09
0.49
0.3
16.80
1.38
1.2
4
05/02/09
May 09
-0.09
0.2
16.94
0.23
0.5
4
5/30/09
Jun 09
-4.38
-4.2
17.14
-3.14
-2.9
5
07/4/09
Jul 09
-5.59
-5.0
16.95
-2.35
-1.7
4
08/01/09
Aug 09
-4.30
-4.3
16.68
-0.28
-0.3
4
08/29/09
Sep 09
-2.19
-2.9
16.30
-0.13
-0.8
5
10/03/09
Oct 09
0.66
0.3
16.10
1.70
1.3
4
10/31/09
Nov 09
2.55
2.2
16.58
4.88
4.5
4
11/28/09
Dec 09
1.82
2.1
15.98
-4.31
-4.0
5
01/02/10
Jan 10
1.00
1.2
15.97
-0.87
-0.6
4
01/30/10
Feb 10
1.79
1.8
15.80
-0.25
-0.2
4
02/27/10
Mar 10
3.92
3.7
15.72
1.54
1.3
5
04/03/10
Apr 10
2.44
2.8
15.71
-1.44
-1.1
4
05/01/10
May 10
2.68
3.0
15.72
0.25
0.6
4
05/29/10
Jun 10
2.97
3.2
15.59
-0.53
-0.3
5
07/03/10
Jul 10
2.89
2.9
15.51
-0.60
-0.6
4
07/31/10
Aug 10
2.80
2.8
15.68
1.01
1.0
4
8/28/10
Sep 10
15.64
5
10/02/10
*--Month-to-month changes are seasonally adjusted. For the current month, the Johnson Redbook Index is the month-to-date average until the month is closed. 
Johnson Redbook Index: Sub-Groups 
same-store yoy% 
 
August 2009
Week ended: 
8/8
8/15
8/22
8/29
MTH
Department
-6.2
-6.6
-7.1
-6.9
-6.7
Discount
-3.1
-3.4
-2.9
-2.4

-2.9

Redbook Index 
-4.2
-4.5
-4.4
-4.1

-4.3

 
 
August 2010 
Week ended: 
8/7
8/14
8/21
8/28
MTH 
TGT
Department
2.0
1.7
1.8
2.0
1.8
1.5
Discount
3.5
3.2
2.9
3.5
3.3
3.4
Redbook Index
3.0
2.7
2.6
3.0
2.8
2.8
Department stores (comprising chain stores and traditional department stores) and discount stores are the two constituent sub-groups of the Johnson Redbook Index. 

About Johnson Redbook Index

1. The Johnson Redbook Index is a sales-weighted average of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large U.S. general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales are sales in stores continuously open for 12 months or longer. By dollar value, the Index represents over 80% of the equivalent "official" retail sales series collected and published by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

2. Redbook compiles the Index by collecting and interpreting performance estimates from retailers. The Index and its sub-groups are sales-weighted aggregates of these estimates. Weeks are retail weeks (Sunday to Saturday), and equally weighted within the month. Months are retail fiscal months on the National Retail Federation's 4-5-4 calendar, and may start and end on different days than equivalent calendar months.

3. Seasonally adjusted month-to-month changes are derived from dollar sales estimates, which are the product of the Index and a base of seasonally adjusted department store sales in U.S. Dollars (excluding leased departments) reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce for the equivalent year-ago month. The Commerce Department's frequent revisions to this series are not incorporated into the Index except for the annual benchmark revision, which may affect historic monthly changes. Redbook may adjust bases to counter distortions caused by floating holidays.

4. Retailer targets are sales-weighted averages of individual retailerís sales growth projections for each month or quarter.

August 31, 2010
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