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March 24, 2017

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ANTICIPATING THE MARCH 1 SOYBEAN STOCKS ESTIMATE, University of Illinois

On March 31, the USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report, with estimates of crop inventories as of March 1, and the annual Prospective Plantings report. For soybeans, the stocks estimate is typically overshadowed by the estimate of planting intentions

INVESTMENT STRATEGY, Raymond James Financial, Inc.

The Climb - I spent last week climbing the mountains of Idaho and Utah, seeing accounts and doing presentations for our financial advisors and their clients.

ECONOMIC MONITOR WEEKLY COMMENTARY, Raymond James Financial, Inc.

Fed And Markets Still Divided On Growth Outlook - "The median projection for the federal funds rate is 1.4 percent at the end of this year, 2.1 percent at the end of next year, and 3 percent at the end of 2019, in line with its estimated longer-run value.

USDA'S TEN-YEAR PROJECTIONS FOR WHEAT, University of Tennessee

The recently released ”USDA Baseline Projections to 2026” augmented by fixed costs that are not included in the baseline shows a ten-year (2017-2026) loss for corn producers of $699 per planted acre.

U.S. AND WORLD STOCK MARKETS, Aden Research

The Bull Keeps On Surging Ahead - The stock market continues to soar. Again, it hit new all time highs, breaking one record after another. In fact, this month it also reached 12 consecutive new highs, for the first time in 30 years.

U.S. SEASONAL OUTLOOK: THE WEATHER COMPANY SAYS UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IN NORTHEAST LIKELY TO FADE, WSI

Spring Warmth Set to Take Hold - ANDOVER, Mass.- In its latest U.S. seasonal forecast for the April-June period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business , predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures across the southern and eastern U.S., with below-normal temperatures confined to the northwestern quarter of the country.

SURVEY SAYS…IGNORE THE HARD DATA AT YOUR PERIL, Pento Portfolio Strategies

Surveys of both consumers and businesses show there is an extreme level of confidence regarding future GDP growth. Consumer confidence is now at its highest level since 2001

HOW TIGHT IS THE U.S. LABOR MARKET? Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to a very low level at the end of 2016, raising the question of whether the labor market has become too tight.

THE GOODS, BMO Capital Markets

Commodity Index Charges To 20-Month High - Index Now Up 27% From Early-2016 Low; Sideways Drive Likely From Here

MUSINGS FROM THE OIL PATCH, Allen Brooks, PPHB

Crude Oil Prices: Divining The Future; Is It Possible To Do? The reality is that crude oil prices have essentially been trading in a fairly narrow range - $50 to $54 a barrel since the surprise OPEC announcement last November

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS, Wells Capital Management

–The truth probably lies somewhere between a seeming disconnect between “real-time” first-quarter growth estimates of about 1% and solid underlying data now clouding the outlook for inflation, interest rates and corporate profits.

GRAIN & LIVESTOCK HEDGING, Dan Morgan VBI Co.

This past weekend I was in New Orleans for R.J. O’brien’s yearly commodity seminar for brokers. It had been 48 years since I had been there. I attended community college in Muscatine and one of my dreams for after college was to get on a barge crew and travel South to see the Mississippi at New Orleans.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY, First Standard Financial

As we see it, moving towards the second Quarter of the year, the economy is posed to stay on solid ground. The recent Leading Economic Indicators rose by 6%, suggesting the economic activity is likely to gather momentum, with all of the components showing signs of expanding.

GREAT EXPECTATIONS, Farr, Miller & Washington, LLC

The market response to last week’s Federal Reserve meeting and press conference was somewhat perplexing. The interest-rate hike itself wasn’t a surprise - there was a nearly unanimous consensus among economists and other market participants that the Fed would increase the Fed Funds rate by 0.25%.

COMMODITIES AND CURRENCIES INSIGHT, Diapason Currencies & Commodities

–Inflation: Core CPI will decline soon, as credit creation slows and he housing market starts to peak

THE WEEKLY VIEW, RiverFront Investment Group

–We See Momentum Shifting Overseas
–The Weekly Chart: Breakout
–Rying The US Economic, Interest Rate And Political Cycles Together

COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK, Michigan State University

–Corn
–Wheat
–Soybeans
–Cattle
–Hogs

WEEKLY US OIL DATA REVIEW, DNB

–1. This week’s reported US DOE oil stats - table and commentary
–2. Brent price action on the data release
–3. Stocks of crude and refined products

THE WEEKLY RE-LAY, INSIIDE Track Trading

--Stock Indices Reinforcing early-March Peak; March 17/20th Projected for Secondary High…
--Late-March-late-April = Dangerous Period.
--Gold & Gold Stocks Corroborating Outlook;

COMMODITY FUTURES FORECAST WEEKLY REPORT, Philip Gotthelf

Russia U.S. Oil Alliance? - Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is not joining other national leaders for the NATO summit. Instead, he is going to Russia to meet with his long-time buddy, Vladimir Putin. So the former head of Exxon/Mobil apparently has urgent business with Russia as rumors of a Trump/Putin connection abound. What is going on?

Monthly Advance Report On Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories And Orders February 2017 by U.S. Department of Commerce

New Residential Sales February 2017 by U.S. Department of Commerce

Cattle On Feed by U.S. Department of Agriculture

Livestock Slaughter by U.S. Department of Agriculture

U.S. Cold Storage Stocks by U.S. Department of Agriculture

Weekly Petroleum Status Report by U.S. Department Of Energy

This Week In Petroleum by U.S. Department Of Energy

Crop Progress by U.S. Department of Agriculture

Export Sales by U.S. Department of Agriculture

Weekly Jobless Claims by U.S. Department of Labor

CONSENSUS Report of Commitments of Traders

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