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May 19, 2017

Outline Of Special Reports And Commentaries In
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INVESTMENT STRATEGY, Raymond James Financial, Inc.

Inflation, El Niño, and Fishmeal - Some inflation numbers were reported last week. They read: April PPI jumped 0.5% month/month, +2.5% year/year; +2.2% year/year was expected. Meanwhile, core PPI increased by 0.4% month/month, +1.9% year/year; +0.2% month/month and +1.6% year/year were expected.

2017-18 MARKET PROSPECTS FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS, University of Illinois

In the May 10 WASDE report, the USDA released the first projections for U.S. corn and soybean supply and demand in the 2017-18 marketing year. While the projections on crop production received quite a bit of the focus, the projections for marketing year consumption levels provide essential information in forming expectations for corn and soybean prices in the 2017-18 marketing year.

BERNANKE'S CONFETTI COURAGE, Pento Portfolio Strategies

Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's book titled "The Courage to Act" is now available in paperback. This isn't a surprise because, after all, his proclivity to print paper encompasses the totality of what his courage to act was all about. The errors in logic made in his book are too numerous to tackle in this commentary; so I'll just debunk a few of the worst.

MUSINGS FROM THE OIL PATCH, Allen Brooks, PPHB

Oil Market Focus Short-Term; Long-Term Is More Important - Daily oil price fluctuations create immediate life or death scenarios for the future of the oil business

MONTHLY IEA OIL MARKET REPORT, DNB

IEA strikes a quite bullish tone in the report where we quote: “In ths Report we show that in 1Q17 the oil market was almost balanced with a global stock build of 0.1 mbd....”

GRAIN & LIVESTOCK HEDGING, Dan Morgan, VBI Co.

Today the energy market closed quite a bit higher prompted by Saudi Arabia and Russia trying to tighten their control over oil producing nations and encouraging other countries to keep their production down.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY, First Standard Financial

As we see it, the rise in retail sales suggests that consumer spending will increase, lifting overall growth from the weak performance of the winter months.

CONSTRUCTING THE HOME PURCHASE SENTIMENT INDEX, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Consumer attitudes about buying and selling homes can inform us about future housing and mortgage markets. The Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) summarizes data from the National Housing Survey on consumers’ conditions, attitudes, and intentions about housing.

COMMODITIES AND CURRENCIES INSIGHT, Diapason Currencies & Commodities

Crude Oil: The supply overhang still hurting oil prices, but rapid inventory draw and new OPEC output agreement could push WTI back towards $55 short term.

SHORT-TERM REVIEW, Walter Murphy

–Insights on US Equities
–Insights on Global Equities
–Insights on Interest Rates
–Insights on Commodities
--Insights on the US Dollar

THE WEEKLY VIEW, RiverFront Investment Group

–Low Volatility - Not A Reliable Bearish Signal
–Low Volatility Is Not A Good Indicator Of Impending Bear Markets

HALCO TRADING STRATEGIES

CASH S&P INDEX AND DJIA: Primary Cycle--Last primary cycle bottomed the week of 3/31 at 2322.25 in the cash contract. Next 1/2 PC crest due by week ending 6/9.
Trading Cycle--Bottomed on 3/27 at 2318.30 in the June contract. Next TC low is due by 5/26.
SEPTEMBER T-BONDS: Primary Cycle--Last primary cycle bottomed the week ending 3/17 at 145^07 in the September contract. Next 1/2 PC low is due by 6/30.
Trading Cycle--Last TC bottomed on 5/11 at 149^12 in the September contract. The next TC low is due 6/1-6/21.

CALL SALES ARE STILL A CASH COW IN SUPPLY BURDENED SOYBEANS, optionsellers.com

Buy low and sell high. It’s the cornerstone philosophy of investing that has been pounded into us since we looked at our first price chart.

COMMODITY FUTURES FORECAST WEEKLY REPORT, Philip Gotthelf

Political Market Influence - I believe I am the only one who correlates the 2008 financial crisis with Representative Barney Frank's comments that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had irregularities that would not be covered by the Treasury despite the Federal guarantee.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index For The United States by The Conference Board

Industrial Production And Capacity Utilization by Federal Reserve Board

Monthly New Residential Construction April 2017 U.S. Department of Commerce

Weekly Petroleum Status Report by U.S. Department Of Energy

This Week In Petroleum by U.S. Department Of Energy

Crop Progress by U.S. Department of Agriculture

Export Sales by U.S. Department of Agriculture

Weekly Jobless Claims by U.S. Department of Labor

CONSENSUS Report of Commitments of Traders

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