Brazil and Argentina have doubled their share of global corn exports over the past decade and are expected to garner nearly half in 2017/18. Both countries are forecast to have record exports while U.S. exports and market share are expected to decline in 2017/18.
India is a significant player in global food grain trade. It is the second largest producer of rice and third for wheat. Government policies have encouraged production of these two staple grains, which are forecast at record levels.
For 2017/18, global corn production is projected down from last year's record due largely to smaller crops in the United States and China. Global consumption outpaces production as demand expands in light of tighter availabilities for other feed grains, mainly barley and sorghum.
Ending stocks for major exporters of coarse grains are expected to swell even further this month. In Argentina and Brazil, corn production is forecast to reach record levels with favorable crop prospects.
The United States continues to export significant quantities of distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS). DDGS are co-products of corn ethanol production and a competitive feed ingredient in the United States and elsewhere.
Global rice stocks are forecast to expand on record production, with 2016/17 ending stocks now forecast at the highest level in over a dozen years. Production is set to hit a record 483 million tons, up over 11 million tons from the prior year.
Combined corn exports for Brazil and Argentina are forecast at a record in 2015/16. In addition to large supplies, both countries have depreciating currencies, making their exports more competitive relative to other suppliers.
U.S. wheat exports in 2014/15 are forecast down 24 percent from last year and are expected to be the lowest in 12 years. The United States had traditionally been the largest wheat exporter but lost that position to the EU last year.
The Russian government recently announced a wheat export duty, effective February 1 through June 30. As the Russian ruble depreciated significantly over the last several months, wheat was exported at a record pace, and domestic prices rose sharply.
Global corn and wheat stocks in 2014/15 are projected 26 million tons higher than last year and are the highest in 15 years. At the same time, U.S. export prices have tumbled from recent highs to the lowest levels in 4 years.
(May 2014) Global corn production in 2014/15 is expected to be unchanged from last year's record, and above global consumption for the fourth year in a row. Global corn consumption is expected to climb at a weaker rate than last year with slower growth in feed demand. The resulting swell in global stocks is attributable entirely to the United States, where stocks are forecast to surge to the highest level in 9 years. Global trade is projected down marginally from last year's record.
(August 2013) Global corn stocks in 2013/14 are projected to rise to the highest level in over a decade as record and near-record crops are forecast for the United States and other exporter countries. This would be the largest year-over-year surge in global stocks since the rebuilding following the 1995/96 global shortfall. The forecast rebound is entirely attributed to the United States, where prospects for a record crop would more than double stocks.
China is now forecast to import 8.5 million tons of wheat in 2013/14, the highest in 18 years. The sharp increase comes on the heels of reports that disease and adverse weather affected quality significantly in both 2012/13 and 2013/14.
Brazil is poised to knock the United States out of its historical position as the world's largest corn exporter due to a confluence of developments: successive bumper harvests, reduced domestic use, available export capacity, and high U.S. corn prices fueled by the historic 2012 drought.