USDA forecasts for net exports (exports minus imports) of red meat and poultry in 2016 and 2017 show progressive increases, largely due to recovery in the U.S. beef sector and expectations of solid growth in poultry exports.
Disappearance, as depicted in the figure below, is the quantity of red meat and poultry that is used in domestic markets. Per capita disappearance is calculated by subtracting net exports and stocks changes from production and then dividing this result by the U.S. population.
2016 data from Global Trade Atlas indicates that there is little export trade in meat and dairy products between the United States and the European Union, and even fewer transactions between the United States and the United kingdom.
The figure below shows 2017 red meat, poultry, and dairy exports as a percentage of production--calculated from USDA's 2017 forecasts for red meat, poultry, and dairy production and exports, compared with 2016 forecasts.
In 2015, U.S. exports of beef, pork, lamb, poultry, eggs and offals were valued at more than $16 billion. Five countries accounted for 74 percent of the value of these exports: Mexico (21 percent), Japan (19 percent), Canada (16 percent), China-Hong Kong (10 percent), and South Korea (8 percent).
USDA is forecasting lower prices in 2016 for cattle, hogs, poultry, eggs, and milk. Cattle prices are forecast to decline almost 8 percent compared with 2015, due to larger supplies of heavy cattle, high cold-storage stock levels, and sluggish foreign demand.
Beef/Cattle: Because of disproportionate placements of heavy feeder cattle in feedlots, relatively inexpensive corn, and historically low cattle on feed inventories, cattle feeders have been able to retain fed cattle to heavier weights, and packers have paid prices higher than are consistent with increases in wholesale cutout values.
Beef/Cattle: Despite improvements in national pasture conditions and anecdotal observations, heifer retention for increasing future breeding cow inventories was not validated in National Agricultural Statistics Service's (NASS) July 1 Cattle report.
Beef/Cattle: Southern Plains precipitation could slow cow slaughter. At the same time, feeder cattle prices are at record levels that could result in declining profit margins for cattle feeders by summer's end.
Beef/Cattle: Lower total cow inventories at the start of 2014 will limit herd expansion, resulting in lower beef production for the next couple of years. Prices for pork and poultry will likely be supported by and dampen beef price increases.
Beef/Cattle: Prospects for a large corn crop, good prospects for wheat pasture this winter, and anticipation of higher prices for fed and feeder cattle all combine to present a more positive outlook for cattle and beef sectors and opportunities for beginning to expand the national beef cow herd.