Global oilseed production is forecast to grow slightly in 2018/19. Soybean production is projected up, as Argentina is forecast to rebound from this year's drought, offsetting year-over-year declines in production of the United States.
Amidst recent import policy changes, India remains the global leader of imported vegetable oils. In March 2018, the Government of India imposed higher tariffs on imported vegetable oils as well as the cess tax imposed on imports.
Global oilseed production is forecast to grow slightly in 2017/18. Soybean production is projected to decline from the current year's record level, with both Brazil and the United States forecast to see year-over-year declines in production,0020Zx x as yields fall to historical trend levels.
Soybean prices declined in March in response to rising projections for the 2017 South American harvest. November futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 7.5 percent, ending the month below $10/bu for the first time since mid-January.
Very few factors influence the demand for agriculture commodities as the availability and relative price of substitutes. Over the past few months, global soybean meal trade from major exporters has slowed down 11 percent from last year for the Aug - Oct period.
Global olive oil supplies in 2016/17 are forecast to tighten as production prospects for major producers in the Mediterranean basin are revised lower. Total global production is forecast at 2.8 million tons, down 8 percent from the previous campaign.
Prospects for U.S. soybean exports have brightened considerably since January as strong global demand, accompanied by shortfalls in projected South American production, is expected to boost both the quantity and value of U.S. exports.
Global oilseed supplies are forecast up just 1 percent in 2016/17, similar to 2015/16. Soybean production is expected to grow 2 percent in response to increases in Brazil and China and a rebound in the India crop.
Pakistan, long an importer of soybean meal, is transitioning to become a significant soybean importer. Pakistan imported more than 500,000 tons of soybeans in 2014/15, a record, and is projected to import as much as 1.5 million tons in the current marketing year.
Brazil's exchange rate is having a significant impact on domestic and global soybean production and trade. Since early October 2014, the value of the real has declined 37 percent relative to the dollar.
Oilseed supplies are currently transitioning from a prolonged period of tightness to one of relative abundance. Global oilseed ending stocks are forecast to rise significantly this year led by a nearly 40 percent rise in soybean stocks.
This month, Argentina's soybean meal consumption is raised to better reflect the amount of meal incorporated in compound mixed feed. Soybean meal is a significant protein component depending on the use.
(May 2014) Global soybean ending stocks in 2014/15 (local year basis) are forecast to jump by nearly 35 percent. Area expansion, encouraged by sustained high prices and better weather, has already led to record 2014 production in South America. Furthermore, record crops are forecast in the United States and Canada for harvest later this year. With production gains outpacing consumption growth, the surplus is expected to replenish global stocks.
Coconut oil prices have surged over the past year in contrast to the general downward trend in other vegetable oil prices. That has resulted in a premium approaching 60 percent over palm and soybean oils.
India, the largest importer of palm oil, has raised its tariff on refined palm oil in response to industry complaints that surging imports of refined oils, principally from Indonesia, have hurt refiners.
Driven by large forward sales to China in late July and August, U.S. new crop soybean sales as of August 29 totaled 20.6 million tons, up 14 percent from last years record, and now represents over half of the current export forecast for the new year.
(August 2013) Argentinas soybean oil exports have surged as production of soy-based biodiesel waned in response to diminished export prospects. Soybean oil exports topped 1.5 million tons in the second-quarter of 2013, exceeding the total volume shipped over the previous two quarters. While exports generally rise substantially in the second quarter, coinciding with the harvest, the erosion in biodiesel production over the past year has freed up additional supplies for soybean oil exports.