Over the past 4+ months, we've been working away trying to keep our readers aware of the risks and concerns that were originating out of some foreign markets and how that might relate to the US markets.
With stocks showing signs of emerging from a long period of dormancy for most of 2018, now would be a good time to evaluate which segments of the market are likely to lead the bull market’s next major rally.
The Dollar rallied almost 5% in the second quarter and is likely to be cited by multi-national companies as a headwind, when second quarter earnings are announced, leading some to lower their earnings guidance for the second half of 2018. With oil prices, interest rates, and wages climbing input costs are 11 rising for many companies, putting them in a difficult decision.
Economy: First-quarter real GDP revised down to 2.00%; June employment report expected to show 185,000 jobs with the focus on wage growth
Fed Policy: Fed is widely anticipated to raise the fed funds level for the eighth time since 2015 in Setember, the fed funds futures market gives the potential for two more rate hikes in 2018 at 47% from 44%
On the surface, Thursday and Friday were pretty good days for the major averages. The Dow Jones Industrials advanced over 150 points while the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 0.70% and the NASDAQ Composite gained almost 1%.
Over the past few months, our research team has authored many articles regarding the wekness in China/Asia as well as the recent rotation in the globalmarkets as trade issues, debt iddues, the G7 meeting and, more recently, concerns in the US and Europe regarding immigration and political issues create chaos in what was, just 18 months ago, a relatively calm global market.