THE WEEKLY RE-LAY
--Stock Indices Fulfilling Analysis For Decline Into September 8-19 10,573 = Key Support In DJIA
--Rebound Into October 11 Should Follow September 15-19 Low!
--Gold Tests Yearly Support At 714-732/GC On September 11 Cycle Low; Rally Into Early-October Expected!
--Japanese Yen On Track For Surge to .9720/JYZ; Long Positions Should Be Scaled Back At That Time...September 15-19 Remains The Likely Period For An Intermediate Peak!
Beginning 09/13/08 Weekly Re-Lay...
THE WEEKLY RE-LAY--Stock Indices Could See '...The Largest Rally Of The Year' (Direct Quote From September 18, 2008 INSIIDE Track Update... The Exact Date Of The Low)...--Bonds And Notes Fulfilling Projections For Multi-Month Peak; Interest Rates Bottoming...--Gold And Silver Fulfill Analysis For Surge From September 11; 2nd Rally Still Possible Into Mid-October (Intervening Pullback Likely)...--Japanese Yen Reaches Upside Target And Triggers Traders To Exit Long Positions; Key Dollar Cycles in Early-October...Beginning 09/20/08 Weekly Re-Lay...
FRIEDBERG MERCANTILE GROUP, LTD.Suite 250, 181 Bay Street, Toronto, Canada
(E-mailed to subscribers on September 29, 2008) SUGAR: SUGAR OUTPUT FALLS VICTIM TO ETHANOL...AND GRAIN--On September 25 the Sugar Cane Industry Association, a Brazilian trade group, released a report on the cane crush in the center-south region (where 90% of Brazilian sugar is grown). The headline should have made sugar bears smile--but not for long. Brazilian crushers processed 317 million tonnes of cane, up 8.5% from the same time last year. The allocation, however, reinforces the argument we've been making all along. Sugar output was 16.9 million, tonnes, down 4% from last year, while ethanol output was 15 .1 billion liters, 15% above last year's level.
Prepared by James Cordier and Michael Gross
Liberty Trading Group
(January 7, 2008) With the $100 per barrel crude oil benchmark now breached, the media has finally had its long awaited field day with the "runaway" oil price story. All of the hype has some traders looking to fade the news and short energy markets at current levels. On the surface, this may very well be a good strategy--for the short term. After all, the psychologically significant $100 level will certainly bring out the table pounding politicians eager to "do something" about the "greedy" oil companies obviously responsible for such high prices (oblivious to the fact that it is market forces, not oil companies which dictate the price of oil). In addition, the recent surge in energy prices combined with a variety of discouraging U.S. economic reports has many economist now uttering the "R" word.
Prepared by Donald L. SazdanoffSovereign Asset ManagementSummary--The sell-off in commodity stocks will eventually create a buying opportunity for long-term investors as the underlying fundamental forces of demand outpacing supply remain in place.--Once the bull move in commodities resumes investors should expect a slower more orderly advance than what we experienced over the past several years.--The current bear market will end once stocks can rally in the face of continued bad headline news.The Global Demand For Commodities Remains Strong