The prospect of a trendline yield in corn fades as each day passes. Last week, the crop rating fell 2 notches to 62 percent in good-to-excellent condition and is below the 10-year average of 64 percent.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wheat futures posted fractional to 4 ½ cent gains in most Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) contracts on Wednesday, with MPLS 10 to 13 cents higher in the nearby contracts.
Spring wheat carried the load for winter wheat for several weeks, but that is over. Last week, the rating for spring wheat fell one-point to an all-time low of 34 percent of the crop in good-to excellent condition.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wheat futures settled with Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fractionally mixed, as Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) and Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) were 2 1/2 and 5 cents lower in their respective front months.
The decline in spring wheat conditions has apparently run its course in supporting winter wheat. Last week, the rating for spring wheat fell two points to a dismal 35 percent of the crop rated in good-to-excellent condition.
Corn was on a rampage for three weeks as traders were dialing in a worst-case yield scenario because of hot, dry conditions in the upper Midwest. However, that appears to have ended with this week's sharp break.
Corn saw another strong push to the upside last week while following the lead seen in wheat and soybean prices. Corn prices made a new high on the year just about three weeks ago followed by new lows on the year two weeks later.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn prices fell Wednesday, set to mark their lowest settlement in the month to date, after the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its United States production outlook for the commodity.
Although global ending stocks of wheat are at a record level, spring wheat is the factor keeping winter wheat afloat. Last week, the funds were short 315 MB, but have probably liquidated most of those positions by now.
Record soybean stocks are available in South America, as well as expectations for the largest crop planted in the U.S. However, inflammatory conditions in the upper Midwest has sparked price gains of nearly 10 percent in less than two weeks.