USDA’s Prospective Plantings report last month indicated that for the 2017/18 crop year, U.S. farmers intend to sow a record 89.5 million acres of soybeans, due to likely contractions in sown acreage for wheat, corn, and sorghum.
USDA's November Crop Production report indicated this year's soybean yield at a record 52.5 bushels per acre, up from last month's forecast at 51.4 bushels. As a consequence, 2016/17 soybean production was forecast 92 million bushels higher to 4.361 billion.
USDA forecasts the 2016/17 soybean crop down 3 percent to 3.8 billion bushels based on farmer intentions for a 1-percent decline in sown acreage (to 82.2 million acres) and a lower expected yield. A trend yield for soybeans in 2016/17 is estimated at 46.7 bushels per acre.
U.S. season-ending soybean stocks for 2015/16 are forecast 10 million bushels higher this month to 450 million--a 9-year high. The increase was precipitated by a lower forecast (down 10 million bushels) of the soybean crush, now forecast at 1.88 billion bushels.
Supply and use forecasts of U.S. soybeans and soybean meal for 2015/16 are unchanged this month. USDA raised its forecast of 2015/16 use of soybean oil for biodiesel this month by 200 million pounds to 5.4 billion.
In its October Crop Production report, USDA raised its U.S. soybean yield forecast for this year to 47.1 bushels per acre. However, U.S. soybean acreage was 655,000 acres lower than indicated in the June Acreage report.
USDA forecasts the 2013/14 domestic soybean crush 5 million bushels higher this month to 1.7 billion bushels. A higher crush would trim season-ending soybean stocks this year to a minimal 125 million bushels.