USDA’s Prospective Plantings report last month indicated that for the 2017/18 crop year, U.S. farmers intend to sow a record 89.5 million acres of soybeans, due to likely contractions in sown acreage for wheat, corn, and sorghum.
USDA's November Crop Production report indicated this year's soybean yield at a record 52.5 bushels per acre, up from last month's forecast at 51.4 bushels. As a consequence, 2016/17 soybean production was forecast 92 million bushels higher to 4.361 billion.
USDA forecasts the 2016/17 soybean crop down 3 percent to 3.8 billion bushels based on farmer intentions for a 1-percent decline in sown acreage (to 82.2 million acres) and a lower expected yield. A trend yield for soybeans in 2016/17 is estimated at 46.7 bushels per acre.
In its October Crop Production report, USDA raised its U.S. soybean yield forecast for this year to 47.1 bushels per acre. However, U.S. soybean acreage was 655,000 acres lower than indicated in the June Acreage report.
USDA forecasts the 2013/14 domestic soybean crush 5 million bushels higher this month to 1.7 billion bushels. A higher crush would trim season-ending soybean stocks this year to a minimal 125 million bushels.
Despite a dimmer outlook for South American soybean production, U.S. exports for 2011/2012 are expected to be unchanged at 1.275 billion bushels as an anticipated upswing in sales may only narrow a large gap with last year's pace of shipments.